The true danger of a second Korean War

Professor Stephen Taylor of Troy University underlined the biggest danger of North and South Korea going to war in an article at Outside the Beltway.

It is not so much that we should fear a North Korean victory, because this is a very unlikely outcome. Even with their much vaunted million man army, North Korea doesn’t stand a chance. No the real danger is in what would happen afterward:

Moreover, and this is the main point I wish to make, I would argue that a fundamental reason that there is a basic impasse regarding the North (and why the Chinese continue to prop up the regime) is that no one, not the South, not the Chinese, wants to deal with the massive humanitarian crisis and refugee problem that would result from a collapsed North. To be somewhat redundant for explanatory purposes, I think that this point is key to understanding Chinese behavior: it is less that are actively supporting the North out of some positive affirmation of said regime as much as they know that should the North collapse that that the would be a massive wave of refugees from the North that would seek solace in China. Given the choice between having the current problematic regime on their border or a failed state in the midst of a massive humanitarian crisis on their border they opt for the former. It is an understandable preference.

It should be noted that the South has a similar problem: even if a resumption of military engagement with the North led to “victory” for the South, the bottom line would be that the South would then be responsible for absorbing and rebuilding the North. While on the one hand there are many in the South that would like for reunification to eventually take place, on the other there is an enormous cost to be affiliated with such an outcome—especially if it came in the context of war or the spontaneous collapse of the North.