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I can sum up his points like this:
- Despite four years of trying the Conservatives have not been able to get their poll numbers to go significantly above one third of voters.
- The BQ taking 40 to 50 seats guarantees that there will be a minority Parliament.
- Despite the Tories being stuck in the mid-30s the Liberals have not been able to provide an attractive alternative.
Scott Reid suggests that the Liberal’s lack of success is due to weak leadership (in the case of Dion) and a lack of overall strategy/vision (in the case of Ignatieff). He proposes that:
For Ignatieff, upping his game begins by acknowledging that issues, values and ideas should be the backbone of the Liberal contrast with the Conservatives — not personality.
I think that this is exactly right that the Liberals can do far better by putting a cap on their contempt for Stephen Harper and actually present a ‘contrast.’ And with that in mind I will now provide free political advice on how Michael Ignatieff can win the next election.
Make the contrast about the economy.
Right now Stephen Harper is trusted more on economic issues, but a recent poll shows that this confidence is slipping. Now is the moment for the Liberal Party to reveal an economic plan that will steal the march on the Conservative Party.
Now here is the trick, out flank them on the right.
Present an economic platform that makes the Conservative’s plan for getting rid of the deficit something dreamt up by Bob Rae (oh and note: keep Bob Rae out of the policy process as much as possible). Tell the Canadian people that it took only four years of irresponsible Conservative government to reverse all the gains of the 1990s. Ask the Canadian people why they should ask the doctor that caused the decease to come up with the cure.
Despite Canada’s reputation as a ‘left-wing’ country we have an inbred appreciation for someone that wants to balance the books. I assert that if Michael Ignatieff presents himself as a fiscally responsible Liberal he will be able to ride himself to a minority government.
If the Liberals do take my advice, then they should be warned. The Canadian people are not stupid. It will not be enough to claim the title of fiscal responsibility. It has to be earned by presenting policy that is actually responsible.
10 comments:
I agree with you. I also think the achilles heal of the Conservatives is the epic fail on economic issues. Mulroney and Harper each have run the largest defcits in Canadian history. The Liberals under Chretien/Martin were the only ones to balance the budgets. Eventually the Liberals will wake up and run on their strong financial performance and Harper's record deficits. It will be a very very tough sell for the conservatives to argue they are stromg on the conomy in the face of massive deficits. Even the Conservative base knows that's nonsense.
Harper's strength is in his messaging, especially when he destroys reputations. He needs to attack Ignatieff so that Canadians will dislike Iggy and vote Conservative. It worked very well with Dion.
The old Mulrooney manuever. Be more conservative than the Conservatives but keep the socialbabble.
This strategy worked for them because they never had to keep their promises and the red tories needed a good hard smack down.
Think it will work again?
'Now here is the trick, out flank them on the right.'
That would be a good trick,
considering Canadians are not stupid as the recent Toronto mayoral election just proved.
Iffy has back tracked from every position he has taken, but in the process did establish his Liberal "issues, values and ideas"
Foreign policy-
Canada did not deserve a seat at the UN because PMSH won't suck up to the UAE and was too supportive of Israel, no more principled stand,
Iffy would fix that,
and taxpayers pick up the tab for 3rd world abortions.
Immigration/Refugee policy-
what ever Amnesty International, Fowler, Heinbecker and university buddy Attaran says,
don't make waves with these elites.
Enviro policy-
Iffy is the father of the Greenshift, a carbon tax is still on his agenda.
Iffy would shut down the oilsands pending environmental review.
(watch out Danny, that offshore drilling may attract the wrath of Iffy, Quebec would be happy)
Economic policy-
Iffy will reverse job creating corporate tax cuts, and 'buy' seniors votes with new, long term structural social spending.
Iffy will copycat Flaherty's economic policy otherwise.
Healthcare-
Iffy will create more long term structural spending with a national pharmacare program.
Iffy will not allow the Premiers to cut costs in their budgets with experimental user fees.
National Defence-
Continue to cast our brave soldiers of being complicite of war crimes in Afghanistan,
the 'progressives' dictate policy here.
Iffy will kill the purchase of F35s, and like Chretien did with the helicopters, for 11 years of majorities and surplus' don't contract the purchase,
cut the military to the bone to appease the anti-military 'progressives' to win Dipper/Green votes.
Canadians are not stupid.
ps.
I forgot
Education-
Free post secondary education for any kid with the marks.
Free overseas travel for students, see the world, a policy in his own image.
Indian Affairs-
bring back the Kelowna accord,
thro money at the Chiefs with no accountability.
Of course, Education, Environment and Health are provincial jusridictions,
but Iffy will tread on Premiers toes, just like the Liberals before him did.
Outflanking the Conservatives fiscally on the right certainly has a superficial appeal. Here's the rub: Whereas the Liberals balanced the books by withholding transfers to the provinces and by taking money from RCMP pension funds and EI, the Conservatives have maintained Liberal-initiated spending commitments without resorting to Liberal perfidy.
Actually Jeff, the Liberals balanced the books because:
1. Cuts to transfer payments (about 15% of the budget savings)
2. Cuts to program spending
3. GST revenue
4. Growing economy (and resulting growing tax revenues)
5. Freezes on wages
6. Freezes on program spending growth to inflation or less
7. Not doing much of anything in terms of new programs
8. Cuts to military spending (very much along the lines of the US as recommended by the likes of Dick Cheney in fact)
And several other things (but not "raiding EI", that's a myth that won't die but the whole "raiding EI" which they were perfectly entitled to do according to the Supreme Court didn't occur until after the books were balanced).
The point being: there is no magic bullet. It is not easy. It takes a full frontal attack and a lot of leadership and political courage. Growth alone is never ever going to be enough. And that is with the relatively small deficit of 1993 not Harper's record deficit of 2010.
Harper has no plan. It would be easy to outflank him with even the barest of plans. If I was advising Ignatieff, I would come out with a vague plan (as they have done) but hold off on the details until the election to avoid your details being stolen or giving the Conservative War Machine time to frame it as they will (like with the Green Shift). Don't give them a target now but do it during an election then Harper's lack of a plan and leadership is even more apparent.
Harper has not only produced 4 budgets in a row that set spending records, not only created our biggest deficit ever and then, after promising austerity as we are coming out of the recession, setting a new record deficit, but he has also:
- set a record for the PMO budget
- set a record for spending on polling
- not cut spending on pretty much anything (except a $2B cut in military spending)
- increased the budget of the Canadian Human Rights Commission
- made advertising and self-promotion a spending priority over jobs/stimulus
- missed absolutely every single financial target and projection he has made, and by a wide margin
- increased the number of permanent government employees (i.e. the size of government) to record levels, even before the recession
- had us in a structural deficit even before the recession
The bar of expectation is always lower for an opposition party. You just have to show that you have a basic plan and you are not going to completely screw things up.
If the Liberals could come up with that basic plan, Harper's disastrous economic and fiscal performance is easy easy pickings.
If this was tenable the Liberals would have chosen John Manley or tried to draft him again.
Speaking as best I can to Ted's comment, all I can say is this:
1. Ralph Klein complained (I don't remember the year, but his complaint was aimed at the Liberals) that feds were covering only 13% of Alberta's health care costs rather than 50%.
2. I remember the Libs cut the federal service, and I wish the Conservatives would do the same. Didn't the number of civil servants just surpass 300,000?
Government needs to shrink. The Conservatives aren't doing it. I don't know why. I can guess, but I won't speculate here. Herein lies the reason why the Liberals can outflank the Conservatives by promising to cut federal spending. I'm just worried where they'll find the money for the big gov't things Liberals love and believe in.
My understanding is that the Federal government didn't so much as cut the percentage of transfers but reformed the way transfer amounts were calculated (which admittedly led to a cut).
Previous to the reform the federal government would match spending with the provincial government. This meant that for every dollar increase in spending on the provincial level, there would be two dollars of actual increase. You can easily understand how this led to out of control spending.
The reformed system is giving out block grants. This meant that provinces became more responsible for funding the programs that they initiate.
Further to Ted's comments, I think it was $50 billion the Liberals took from EI. That trick can't be repeated. There's one year of our current deficit. Taking several billion more from RCMP and civil service pensions is another Liberal trick the Conservatives can't repeat. There's another year of our current deficit. As I said before, Conservatives are maintaining Liberal-initiated spending initiatives, but they aren't stealing from anyone to do it.
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