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Talk of election has been sparked by a poll that showed Conservatives just below 30% and Liberals only 1.3% below the Tories. Now a second poll shows that the Conservative Party and the Liberal Party are still close, but the gap has widened with the Tories at 34% and the Grits at 31%. The questions that are now on the mind of the political class are: Is this the beginning of a new trend? What caused this to happen?
The first question can only be answered in time, but I think we can piece together evidence to explain these numbers.
Throughout the Spring and early Summer the Conservatives have been enjoying support in the range of 34%-36%. Meanwhile the Liberal Party has been suffering down at 26% or even 25%. If you compare those numbers to the most recent poll it is obvious that it is the Liberal Party’s support that has changed and not the Conservative Party.
We can then rule out explanations such as the census long-form and G20 controversies. The previous poll number of 29.7% for the Conservatives can be explained by either the month of bad press in July, or perhaps the poll itself was faulty. Either way the Conservatives have bounced back to their traditional level of support.
Normally opposition numbers drop in the summer months, but the Liberals have had a good summer. Their leader was highly visible while Stephen Harper has been reclusive. Michael Ignatieff’s bus tour had a few bumps but for the most part the media has given him positive reviews. Even his communication skills seem to have improved a little. So it appears that the bus tour actually accomplished its mission and Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals have recovered from their abysmal spring.
Ultimately this means that even if there isn’t an election the fall will be crucial. Having numbers that are 3% below your opponent is better than 10%, but a Liberal victory is still a long way off. Mr. Ignatieff now has to not only hold on to the summer gains but use the Parliamentary session to expand upon them. History has shown that Parliamentary strategy is a weak spot for Mr. Ignatieff, but if he ever wants to be Prime Minister he now has to prove that he looks good in Ottawa not just okay on a bus.
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5 comments:
Still trust the insider polls do we.?Does nobody ever learn? Election day is the only true poll.Polling during the summer is an interruption to most people and you will never get a real answer.But they keep doing it,just to try beyond all possible hope to make the corrupt Liberals look good.Ain,t gonna happen,Liberals want their entitlements and have yet to pay the 54 million back they stole and for that matter the leadership money they all still in debt for.
Why are we giving the Liberals a foot in the door? After Harper's G20 and G8 triumph they should have been dead and buried.
Instead.... look at this mess. Drives me crazy! We are forever snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Someone at the PMO needs to go. Or if this census and jails foolishness is driven by the PM, then we are in trouble.
Every once in a while, something will come up, the usual suspects will gang up on us over an extended period of time, and we will take a hit at the polls.
We saw that scenario play out with the prorogation. It's just a fact of life, given the political environment we operate in.
The way I see this, it's another bump in the road. Harper has dealt with much tougher situations. Not just the coalition coup. But also the final week of the last election, when we were just barely ahead in the polls, Fife reported there was "panic" in our ranks, Harper carried the Party on his back to victory.
People, including the nervous nellies in our Party, underestimate Harper's political skills. He is no dummy, and is on the road for two weeks, getting the public narrative back to the economy.
Here's a hypothetical question: Suppose, when Chretien mused about a coalition ("if it's doable, then let's do it")) the media had pursued THAT very, very interesting story for a month, pressing Iggy et al for more details ? What kind of hit would the Libs have taken in the polls ?
But our media runs interference for the Libs, as they need all the help they can get, going up our side.
The Conference Board of Canada stated that if the Harper Govt stays the course,
the books could be balanced 2 YEARS AHEAD of schedual......
Kevin Page had to REVERSE his stand that only drastic spending cuts and tax increases can get Canada out of this structural deficit.
How much media attention did that good news story get?
http://thechronicleherald.ca/Canada/1196123.html
Wilson's example is just the latest in a long line, whereby the media latches on to a narrative (Kevin Page is an awesome, unbiased prognosticator, unlike Flaherty, and all the others that the Tories often quote).
But when new information comes out, which blows a huge hole in their preferred narrative, they largely ignore it.
Again, this is just the way the political "reporting" is, and we have to deal with it as best we can.
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