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The Bloc Québécois makes it nearly impossible for a national federal party to form a majority government. With a lock on around 50 seats neither the Conservatives nor the Liberals are likely to win enough ridings to gain complete control of Parliament. So Canada is stuck with minority governments and the resulting constant threat of elections and instability.
There are only two ways for a majority government to become possible again.
The first way has been recently pointed out by Jane Taber. The plan to create new constituencies in Alberta, British Columbia, and Ontario will change the regional balance of Parliament. Quebec’s population compared to the rest of Canada has been in steady decline, and so it only makes sense that Quebec’s weight in Parliament will also decline. With more seats outside of Quebec, the Conservatives and the Liberals will be able to win enough ridings to form a majority government.
The problem is that the balance is not changing enough to make majority governments that much more likely. If we assume that the BQ can rely on winning 50 seats, this means that in the current seat distribution they will make up about 16% of the House. If the proposed changes come into place the BQ will still make up about 15% of the House. So there will still be a large bloc (if you excuse the pun) of seats that are out of reach for the Liberal Party and the Conservative Party. In the long run Quebec will likely continue to decline in population, but it could take decades for the seat distribution to change enough that majority governments will again become plausible.
The second strategy is to try and win the support of “soft-nationalists” away from the BQ. This is the strategy that the Harper government attempted in the first 2 years of power. They called Quebec a nation within Canada, and funnelled ever more money into Quebec provincial coffers. But when Election Day came Quebec voters did not award the Conservatives. Instead they voted for the BQ again.
So evidently the so called soft-nationalists aren’t in the mood to be wooed. Which makes sense, the BQ are best able to lobby for Quebec in a minority Parliament, so why would they vote for anyone else? What does the Liberal Party or the Conservative Party have to offer that the BQ can’t give the nationalist voter?
Going after the nationalist voter with more Quebec subsidies has proven to be a bottomless pit strategy anyway. There is no amount of funding that will be enough.
So both paths to majority government are, for the moment, out of reach. The reality is that we are now in a time of prolonged minority governments. We should all readjust our thinking accordingly.
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8 comments:
Stop the party welfare?
Ho, hum, its Quebec - this province is less and less relevant in the 21st century. No new ideas, static population, lousy governance at the local/provincial level and a victim mentality that translates into federal immaturity. They have choosen to be a "have not province". Cheers. FernStAlbert
Just make transfer payments dependent on federal government seats won and make Separatist seats non-eligible.Or just stop the handouts completely.We will then see population move out west and seats go with the population.And as anon 1 said stop the party welfare.No money no seats,it is very simple really.
I am sure the Conservatives, through incremental gains, can make up the seats elsewhere..what do they need, 11 + (?)
End the taxpayer subsidy and the Bloc will lose half their seats.
Problem solved.!
Connected to this is also the fact that the four western provinces will have 104 seats, BC and Alberta 77. The west is a stronghold for conservative parties.
Right now the Conservatives can be sure of 70-75 seats in the west. With the new seats this should rise to 75-80 seats. In the 80s this was 50-55 seats.
The core seats on the right are rising in Canada and will eventually lead to the Conservatives being the naturally governing party in Canada.
There are other game changers out there:
The "coalition of the winners"; Blue Liberals, fed up with the lack of effective leadership and ideas cross over and caucus with the CPC,bringing about a majority.
The NDP/Liberal merger. Since Paul Martin became Prime Minister, the LPC has been moving steadily leftward and is now firmly in NDP/Green party territory. Orange Liberals might be tempted to come over to the NDP with the right inducements, and Bob Rae is only the most prominent former NDPer in the LPC. Why go Socialist lite when you can have the real thing? The Socialist Alliance Party will be much stronger and more cohesive, and provide voters with a clear-cut choice.
Redistribution of seats may come a lot faster than we think. I believe that a mandated redistribution is due in 2014 with the potential to allow a majority to form without regard for Quebec. Voters in Quebec might well be tempted to abandon the BQ to keep a seat at the table.
A good and timely subject to discuss. First of all, yes quebec is shrinking and parliament must adjust to accomodate that. All the other federal parties should support this as they cannot lose in the deal. Secondly, it is possible for conservatives to increase the strength of their minority such that risk of election is reduced even from the current situation - well worth going after in either case. Lastly, there is issues that can ignite quebec voters but as you point out money is not really the issue, the issue is quebec becoming a country or sovereignity association. I am known as being a fan of Mulroney's before his time prescription to solve the 'quebec' problem and he is still correct, even more so today. Quebec sees itself as a country and that is all there is to it. This is not going away and even though certain powerful minorities in the province wish to still be governed by Ottawa that is only wishful thinking, even destructive to the rest of the country frankly. It is also selfish and self-serving too. How can Harper get a majority in an election? He has to give Quebec something that makes it feel more like a country. (real conservative)
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